Mr. Holbrooke Goes to Islamabad/Kabul

Welcome Mr. Holbrooke, to the theater that is Pakistan and Afghanistan, a troupe of non-state actors, stateless actors, stated actors, unstated actors, and others without clear roles, engaged with each other, both through cooperation and conflict, in constructing a whole host of charades to perplex the world with, while they themselves continue to follow their own scripts behind their presented scripts. Sounds confusing? Well, obviously. This part of the world has confused and confounded everyone for decades now, especially the Pakistanis and Afghanis. Those who have claimed to be able to comprehensively explain the entire situation in this region are committing the dangerous sin of oversimplification. So, instead of committing this grave mistake Mr. Holbrooke, I would just give you a briefing on a few of the major players.

The battlefield for the war on [insert term here depending on what party you are and what side you are on] lies in the north western regions of South Asia.

For the Afghani Government, this is the War for Survival. The Afghani government is threatened on every front by the Taliban menace. Recent reports by NATO show that the Taliban are not just a threat in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan but have now become a threat within Kabul itself. Moreover, there is sufficient evidence to show that even within the Afghani government there are elements covertly profiting from supporting the Taliban as they destabilize the government and the country.

For Al-Qaeda, the notorious international terror network, this is the front for the War on Attrition. For Al-Qaeda, this region of disorder and discontentment is the perfect place for them to train, recruit, strategize and accumulate weapons and money, to prevent depletion, and continue to plan and carry out terrorist attacks around the world.

For the Taliban, this is the War on a Fragmented Opposition. The Taliban wish to control this region unopposed, and expand beyond this region to capture and control as much of Afghanistan and Pakistan as possible. The expansion is in all directions, and the opposition therefore comprises a variety of actors, fragmented across the region, including NATO, the Pakistani and Afghani governments, and local tribal rivals, among others. I challenge the wisdom that today’s Taliban is a loose term for different Islamic extremist militia of largely Pashtun origin looking to exert control over different parts of this region. As I see it, these are no small localized operations, but instead there is clear coordination and unity of purpose and even strategy, an issue that I will discuss subsequently in another blog entry.

For the Pakistani government and the Pakistani army, two separate entities, the force being fought against is far less clear. The civilian Pakistani government has made its secular leanings clear, and is committed to fighting the Taliban threat within Pakistan, a War on the Taliban as it were. However, it finds itself fighting a war opposed by its own people. At the same time this war pits it in many ways against it own army. The Pakistani army, is, on the surface, fighting the War on the Taliban as the lead ally of the United States, but is increasingly showing a greater interest in pursuing the War on India. Behind this gravitation from one front to the other is, what could well be a different war, being fought by the army against its own civilian government, as it hopes to keep control of the country. This is a struggle in which they see the Taliban as a vital asset. Hence the Pakistani army seems to be fighting three different wars on different levels, a subject I shall deal with in subsequent blog entries in this series.

Mr. Holbrooke is entering a situation where he cannot be clear who his friends and enemies are, and what his assets and liabilities are. The only truth he can be certain of is that the threat of Islamic militant extremism has grown much stronger in this region than it has been in a long time, and somehow, he needs to unravel this mess of characters in order to re-write a script for success and stability in this region. We wish him the best of luck.