Iftikhar Chaudhary's Long March Back- Part 2

The Punjabi middle class and intelligentsia: Many of the lawyers and leaders would love to claim that the whole nation united for change yesterday. The fact of the matter is, they did not. This day belonged to the people of Punjab, with a handful of people from Balochistan and NWFP. Sindh stood resolutely behind the government, and Karachi’s people remained quite disinterested, pleased to see that for once their city was not at the center of the tension. But yes, this was all about Punjab, and that is in no way a criticism. For what we have witnessed in the Punjab is the rise of a new force for political and social change. The Lawyers Movement has brought together the new burgeoning Punjabi urban middle class, with the urban elites, giving them a political consciousness and a political enthusiasm. They are both willing and able to come together to bring about change, and so they are a very potent force for the future. We finally have a middle class that is convinced of democracy and public participation, and is willing to fight for it, come out on the streets for it, as they did in large numbers yesterday, and we also have an urban elite that is willing to join them. Now, all they suffer from is a lack of leadership. Their leaders unfortunately, are predominantly people like Imran Khan and Qazi Hussain Ahmed, reactionary right-wingers, who wish to take this country in the wrong direction with their ardent anti-Americanism, and their dangerous religious populism. It’s time the progressive segment of society acknowledged the power and potency of this new class, and gave it some kind of positive direction. Men like Aitzaz Ahsan really need to be catapulted to the front of Pakistani politics, to give them the leadership they really need, because we know from yesterday, that what the Punjabi middle class wants, they can get.

Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary: Of course, there can be no doubt the big winner from this drama was the man himself, the deposed and now restored Chief Justice. Throughout all this, I marveled at the fact that Iftikhar Chaudhary remained totally silent. He could have come out, riled up the people, and tried to force some agitation but he did not. He has shown remarkable restraint, something we rarely expect from our leaders. This one man has proven himself a giant. The government did not want him back, the army did not want him back, and the US did not want him back. None of the powers-that-be were hoping for his return. But, yet all have been forced to give way. Many of Pakistan’s experts were of the opinion that the movement to restore him did not have any lasting traction, and after last years’ election and ousting of Musharraf, the movement would fragment and he would become irrelevant. But that did not happen. Many disagree with his judicial activism, or find his politicization of the judiciary worrisome, or even distrust his character, but they cannot doubt the grip he has on the political imagination of our people, and hence the power he wields to bring the entire establishment to its knees. His return represents the victory of the people against the establishment.

The people are joyous. Different people hope he will take on different segments of the establishment. Some hope he will put Musharraf on trial (well I certainly wish he could, at any rate, thought I doubt it). Others hope he will revoke the National Reconciliation Ordinance and delegitimize Zardari’s presidency, look into the Missing Persons cases, even prosecute the MQM in Karachi for the violence of May 12th. Some even claim he will bring increased foreign investment to Pakistan. People see him as a panacea for all Pakistan’s problems.

The reality is he is not. And no, there is no guarantee that things will get better now.

Quite the contrary.

The conflict between the PPP and PML-N is far from over; there is yet more chaos to come. The Long March exposed clear schisms between Sindh and Punjab that do not bode well for the future. The pro-Islamist crowd still leads the Punjabi middle class. Zardari is still very much in power, albeit isolated. The economy is still in a downward spiral. And moreover, the dangerous Taliban continue to expand their hold over this state. We do not even know where Iftikhar Chaudhary stands on these issues, and we hope he does not take the line of his right-wing supporters in Punjab, making the war on the Taliban even more difficult. Finally, the army still reigns supreme within the establishment, and continues to play its own political games. In fact the great unanswered question remains: what role did the Army play in all this? Some speculate that the army helped orchestrate all this, and has even been involved in deals with Iftikhar Chaudhary and Nawaz Sharif. I myself do believe the army had an important role to play, but that we will understand better as time reveals further facts about what transpired behind the scenes these last few days.

Yet in spite of all this, I think for this one day, the cynics and pessimists must acknowledge one thing, that this could have gone a lot worse, and that on this one day, regardless of whatever was going on behind the scenes, people came out in large droves, believing they could make a difference, zealous in exercising their democratic right to hold their leaders responsible, and confident they could change the political face of this country, and they did just that. So today, the people can give themselves a pat on the back. This was Pakistan’s ‘Yes we can’ moment, and the people should be proud.

Iftikhar Chaudhary's Long March Back- Part 1

And so once more, the ides of March have proven historic for Pakistan. After a very long time, the Pakistani people, yearning for good news, starving for something positive, pleaing with their deities for a reason not to give up all hope can actually say, something went right. On this day, many heroes were anointed, many villains were shamed, but more than that, a tense Pakistani populace can heave a sigh of relief, that among all the possible disasters that could have resulted from this confrontation, the only possible positive scenario, possibly the least likely eventuality at that, is the one that actually happened. The protests could have turned violent, but they did not. They could have been hijacked by more aggressive, more militant elements but they were not. Possibly disastrous confrontations in Islamabad were avoided. The police could have kept up with the suppressive tactics that they engaged in right up till Sunday morning but they backed off. Zardari could have continued emulating the ways of Musharraf and authoritarian dictators of years past, but he was halted. Most dangerous of all, the army, sensing instability, could have seized the opportunity to throw out the civilian government once more, but they chose not to. Instead, the army laid low, Zardari backed off, the protests were peaceful, positive and celebratory for the most part, and they got what they came out for without having to resort to violence or aggression, as most people would have assumed was inevitable. Lahore bore witness to one big party with a big cause.

Zardari and his coterie have clearly lost big in this whole drama. Taking on the Sharifs and pretty much the entire Punjab the way he did was just a monumental mistake. Zardari was never someone the public could have had much faith in. But his style of governing thus far had been based on consensus and compromise, which I believed was the smartest way to bring a stable political set-up to this country. However, this approach that he applied everywhere else, was distinctly absent in Punjab. He and his Punjabi lieutenant Salman Taseer went after the Sharifs and paid for it. Zardari ended up resorting to the same strong arm tactics of dissolving assemblies, rounding up opponents, arresting people by the hundreds, curbing the media and suppressing all political activity, that Musharraf did, and his efforts met the same fate. The only difference was he did not have a powerful army establishment behind him so his chances of getting away with such a power grab were even less. How blinded was he by his own power, one wonders. Zardari and his minions Salman Taseer, Rehman Malik and Farooq Naek, have always been viewed by most of society with great suspicion if not outright hostility. Now they have cemented their places as villains and targets of universal public ridicule and rage. I hope some of them, especially Salman Taseer who has proven to be a real arrogant menace, depart as soon as possible. One thing is for sure, the Zardari government is now tottering towards its own collapse, as even people within the PPP have made their objections to their leadership clear. He is a wily man, no doubt, I do not see him getting out of this one.

Several figures have emerged as clear victors in this tumultuous drama.

Nawaz Sharif : While I fear this man, his tendency towards belligerent confrontation, his Punjabi regionalism, his right wing tendencies, and his resultant close alliances, with those elements that I fear most in the Pakistan political spectrum, the Islamists, I still have to give him the credit he is due. When Zardari picked what columnist Irfan Hussain called, his presidential ‘panga’ with Sharif, he clearly underestimated the populist strength of this man. Governor Salman Taseer mocked him, doubting his ability to bring out the people. But bring them out he did. And how. On 15th March, he showed his mettle and his following. He spoke directly to the civilian government, to the establishment, and to anyone else who doubted him, telling them that he was the only leader other than the late Benazir Bhutto who can really bring out the people, the only other leader with that populist strength, and no one should forget that. As he defied house arrest orders, to arrive at GPO chowk in Lahore, to lead 40, 000 people, even those with minimal respect for Nawaz, including myself, could not help but be impressed. Moreover, the fact that he did not do anything to turn the crowd violent or too aggressive deserves commendation. That Nawaz got involved in this movement for the sake of his own power prospects, that he was willing to take Pakistan to the brink in his confrontation with Zardari is without doubt, and is a matter of concern. But he handled the situation very deftly yesterday, and clearly won this latest battle in the endless war between him and the PPP, decisively.

Prime Minister Gilani: Prime Minister Gilani has been the butt of countless jokes since Zardari chose him as his powerless puppet prime minister. Yet throughout this conflict, he has staked a position separately from the president, stuck to his guns, and been at the center of all possible reconciliation efforts, refusing to allow Zardari to close the doors on compromise. Gilani made both his discomfort with Governor’s Rule and his interest in seeing the judges restored clear. Negotiating with Zardari, Kayani and the Sharifs, Gilani kept the door opened to a resolution thorough, and finally, many speculate it was him and Kayani who pressured Zardari to accept the Chief Justice being restored. Gilani has finally come into his own, and is not the same puppet prime minister everyone ridiculed anymore.

Sherry Rehman, Raza Rabbani, Aitzaz Ahsan, Safdar Abbassi, Naheed Khan: These five figures from the PPP, have proven that there are people of principle still left in Pakistani politics. By leading the Lawyers’ Movement, Aitzaz Ahsan lost all his political clout within the PPP once Zardari and his gang took over the party after the February elections. But he stuck with his position on the judicial issue and today it has paid its dividends. Moreover, he is no more alone as a PPP member with serious public reservations regarding the Zardari leadership. Indeed he is joined by several others who were very close to Benazir Bhutto and were at the core of the party before. Naheed Khan and Safder Abbassi both stalwarts of the PPP have come out with the lawyers against the government. Raza Rabbani and Sherry Rehman both senior members of the PPP also resigned their positions in protest at the tactics and strategies of the Zardari leadership. Former Information Minister Sherry Rehmans principled stance against the government’s actions against the media was especially impressive, as it is not often you see someone with such a high cabinet position resign purely on the principle of prior guarantees she had made to the people. Amidst the hypocrisy and opportunism that characterizes Pakistani politics such stances are rare and refreshing.
(This entry is broken into two parts)