I saw a film today oh, boy,
The English Army had just won the war.
A crowd of people turned away,
But I just had to look,
Having read the book,
I'd love to turn you on.

Monday, February 16, 2009

No Deal for Swat...Please!

The Zardari government perplexes me. To my mind there seems little doubt that this is the only unequivocally secular entity in the Pakistani political realm, and hence has no internal qualms with tackling the Taliban menace. Moreover, the Zardari government has gone to great lengths, to try and draw the attention of the public and the intelligentsia to the barbaric reign of terror being unleashed upon the people of Swat by the Taliban and the political outfit they work under in Swat, the TNSM. So therefore, I wonder, why this new agreement with these jihadis? How is this wise?

The government is claiming this to be a big victory. Under the agreement Sharia law is being formally established as the law in the Swat and Malakand region, provided the TNSM helps establish stability there, and also supports a new local administration which will be established in Swat, operating under Sharia law, with the consensus of all players in Swat. The TSNM's militant wing, the Swat Taliban, has also agreed to a 10-day ceasefire and to cease burning down schools. This agreement may I add, has almost no chance of working.

This is not the first attempted peace agreement in Swat. In 2008 a deal was struck with the TNSM, requiring them to “hold the local government…in high esteem, work for the peaceful implementation and enforcement of Sharia law, condemn attacks on the government, and cooperate with the government to establish the law and restore peace." We see, here that this is not the first time we’ve offered them Sharia law as an olive branch. The logic of the Pakistani government would seem to be that, under the new system, the TNSM will get their demand for Sharia law, but this will be Sharia law, to the extent it falls within the limits of the Pakistani constitution, as this region would still be part of the Pakistani state. Hence, this would not be much more than a change in appearance, as all that will happen is, in exchange for peace, judges within these areas, will move from having the title ‘Judge’ to having the title ‘Qazi’, a nominal difference at best. They have attempted this kind of compromise before, and it will not work.

This is because these people do not have any interest in falling under the control of the state and constitution of Pakistan. These are not simple clerics, who feel their religious imperative urges them to establish an Islam-based legal system in Pakistan. This is an armed revolutionary movement bent on control and establishment of their own system under their own supervision.

Moreover, they’ve seen this tactic from the Pakistani government before, and they are wise to it. Sufi Mohammad, the leader of the TNSM has already made clear, that the condition must be added that Sharia court decisions in Swat cannot be verified by or appealed in the courts of the rest of the state judicial system. This, of course, means that without any supervision or provision for appeal, the courts will run based on whatever law the strongest group within Swat, that being the TNSM/Taliban, chooses. The constitution would be irrelevant. This, of course, is a condition that the Pakistani government would never be willing to accept. If it does, they would effectively be partitioning Swat from Pakistan. If it doesn’t, well, the TNSM/Taliban will claim that the government is not committed to true Sharia, and not committed to following with their deal, just as they claimed in the last peace agreement of 2008, and thus will be “compelled” to take up their arms once more, and the terror will resume.

Only this time, it will prove to be even worse. With this level of acceptance from the government, these Jihadis will gain more public legitimacy than ever before. With the government itself accepting their fight as a struggle for Sharia, and further, publicly declaring their demand for Sharia legitimate through this deal, the government is allowing them to shape the public appearance of this conflict. So, when this agreement will fall through, as it inevitably will, the TNSM and Taliban will be able to use the public legitimacy their cause is being given, to blame the government for betraying their legitimate cause of Islamic law, and further fuel public opinion in the rest of Pakistan against the government. Many feel one of the main reasons the government is being driven to this agreement is that the government itself is incurring massive losses and yet does not even have the support of a public mandate for fighting the Taliban militarily. Therefore, they are driven to other solutions. However, this option is doomed to failure. The agreement will not only fall through soon enough, but the agreement will give the Taliban and the TNSM’s position further legitimacy, and give them an opportunity to turn the public opinion even further against the government’s armed solution.

I implore President Zardari to abandon this unwise strategy. You have tried these tactics before. They have not worked. In fact from Musharraf’s countless failed peace deals, to the failed treaties last years, the state has always been weakened further in relation to these terrorists in these deals. Watch their activities. Listen to their rhetoric. They have no real interest in compromising with the government. They have no intentions of subordinating to, or even coexisting with, the Pakistani state. For them, such agreements are only stepping stones towards further legitimacy and further control, and only help ease their path towards the dominant position they wish to take, piece by piece, over the whole of this tottering nation, Pakistan.

No comments:

Post a Comment